Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
