Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
